At the front of the fleet, the Pacific is not being very helpful to the two leaders, with Armel Le Cléac’h some 300 miles ahead of Alex Thomson. In light airs, the pair are finding it hard to get out of this sticky patch with the weather pattern set to remain the same with the high settled ahead of them.
The weather files may provide them with plenty of data, but out on the water, it is not so easy to find your way out of such conditions. The high, which settled in the middle of the Pacific is slowly moving towards Cape Horn. The two leaders may have spent a lot of time figuring out where to go, but they are still held up in this shallow low and unable to find the westerly winds. They may not exactly be stopped, but their progress is certainly slow and that is set to continue this weekend.
Armel Le Cléac’h can take it easy, as not only is the heavy weather behind him and there is no change in the near future, but he has also widened the gap to 300 miles over Britain’s Alex Thomson. In the words of the Breton sailor, that is the precise distance he believes is required to feel relaxed and look ahead rather than having to spend time checking his rear view mirror. That more or less corresponds to a day of sailing, meaning he can adapt his trajectory keeping his rival in his wake. Banque Populaire VIII ‘s decision to move further north is not just due to the proximity of the Antarctic Exclusion Zone which the skipper has been close to for the past couple of days, but also because the situation looks more favourable further north than down at 50°S and because the British sailor is 200 miles above him.
This is the sort of tactic you would expect from a former Figaro racer, who is determined to keep hard at it until the finish. It is true that there are still 10,000 miles to sail and the first goal has to be rounding Cape Horn in front and preferably a day ahead of his nearest rival. It looks like he could achieve that as Hugo Boss is not so well placed to hop onto the edge of the high, which is just a few dozen miles ahead of the blue boat, but over a hundred from the black one. Once again, Armel Le Cléac’h should be able to hammer another nail home picking up northerly winds and extending his lead. However, we are not talking about rocket speeds, just that touch more on the pedal with the wind backing westerly this weekend and then southerly with a low-pressure system that will find it hard to slide towards Cape Horn.
Intermediate zones
While the situation is not exactly the same for the next two boats, there are similarities as they are currently sailing between the big blow that affected the three sailors behind them and a front. Paul Meilhat (SMA) and Jérémie Beyou (Maître CoQ) will be sailing in this pattern for some time. The northerly wind eased off during the night to around 15 knots for the pair sailing about forty miles apart. Speeds should be similar between the two in this air stream that is turning westerly and easing off. They are likely to have to head towards the NE in the coming days to find more wind in the middle of the world’s largest ocean. A completely different picture from what happened earlier this week in the Tasman Sea and Indian Ocean.
Behind them, while it is not a storm, conditions are quite rough. Behind the big storm, which shook them up, Yann Eliès (Quéguiner-Leucémie Espoir) and Jean Le Cam (Finistère Mer Vent) are still in a strong westerly flow blowing at more than thirty knots. For the moment, the duo have room to head twoards the SE and the exclusion zone, but they are going to have to gybe to head towards Campbell Island. By then, they are going to watch Jean-Pierre Dick zooming down towards New Zealand in more favourable winds. It looks like the three French sailors will be back together again this weekend with the skipper of StMichel-Virbac in charge…
You’ll never walk alone
This looks like being the only real shake up in the rankings in the next few days, as although most of the sailors are sailing close to another, the gaps should allow them to maintain their positions. In the duel between Stéphane Le Diraison (Compagnie du Lit-Boulogne Billancourt) and Nándor Fa (Spirit of Hungary) who have been battling it out ahead of a strong front for five days, there will be a short break before they reach the longitude of Cape Leeuwin on Friday evening. The next three are spread out a bit more with Conrad Colman (Foresight Natural Energy) heading back up towards the route taken by Arnaud Boissières (La Mie Câline) and followed by Fabrice Amedeo (Newrest-Matmut). The moderate West to NW’ly wind should strengthen this evening.
Another big low is moving in from the west and will affect Eric Bellion (Commeunseulhomme) back down from 40°S in a strong northerly blowing in excess of forty knots. That should ease somewhat today, but seas will remain heavy with more gales expected this weekend. The three international skippers have got past the tricky conditions associated with the continental shelf around the Kerguelens, but there is a long way to go to get to Cape Leeuwin – 1500 miles to be precise for Irishman, Enda O’Coineen (Kilcullen Voyager-Team Ireland), Swiss sailor, Alan Roura (La Fabrique) and American, Rich Wilson (Great America IV). They will have to deal with two more lows before reaching the halfway point.
Isolated cases
The three at the back are gradually about to discover the hard stuff. So far, they haven’t had a bad storm, but they should expect rougher conditions ahead in the Indian, and although there are no really nasty lows forecast before Christmas, there will be a series of fronts and shifts to deal with in winds blowing at between twenty and forty knots. Thomas Ruyant (Le Souffle du Nord pour le projet Imagine) is all alone and only has 24 hours left in the Indian. He is being pushed along by a powerful NW’ly blowing at 25-30 knots, but those ahead are more than 500 miles from him, while Louis Burton (Bureau Vallée), who is also alone, is some 900 miles behind. It’s not easy being alone and is something that Dutchman, Pieter Heerema (No Way Back) is also having to cope with.
Dominic Bourgeois/M&M
Source: Vendee Globe
